Perceived Trip Time Reliability and Its Cost in a Rail Transit Network

Time reliability in a Rail Transit Network (RTN) is usually measured according to clock-based trip time, while the travel conditions such as comfort and convenience cannot be reflected by time. Here, crowding level of trains, seat availability, transfer times are considered compute passengers’ Perceived Trip (PTT). Compared with average PTT, extra PTT needed for arriving reliably, which equals 95th percentile minus converted into monetary cost estimating Reliability Cost (PTRC). The ratio reliably referring buffer time index proposed measure (PTR). To overcome difficulty obtaining who among rail transit modes, Monte Carlo simulation applied generated computing PTR PTRC. A case study Chengdu’s RTN shows that metrics method PTRC an effectively. PTTR, PTRC, influential factors have significant linear relations them, obtained regression models them can guide passengers reliably.